The Age of Miracles

At the end of 2019, I wrote that I was preparing for both Stagflation and Boom.

Within months of writing that post, the Stagflation unexpectedly came in the form of the Coronavirus Crisis. The stock market and the economy went into freefall as governments rushed to impose lockdowns to stop the spread of the virus, and the unemployment rate spiked to nearly 15%. The US government’s budget deficit exploded to its highest level since WWII and the Federal Reserve still continues to finance these massive fiscal deficits via money printing. The price of gold rose to an all-time high in response to this “Great Monetary Inflation”. For a time, many luxuries of the modern economy that we take for granted today, from air travel to dining in restaurants, became impossible at any price.

However, the worst of the crisis is now behind us in the United States, and as I wrote in November 2020, the United States is on the cusp of a historic economic boom. The Boom that I wrote about in Stagflation and Boom is entering the first inning.

Despite working in the technology sector, I’ve actually been a technology pessimist for the entirety of my adult life. I’ve been a technology pessimist not because I do not think technology is important, but because creating technological miracles is the purpose of wealth, and our civilization was not generating miracles at the same rate it did before 1971. Tyler Cowen’s Great Stagnation and Peter Thiel’s The End of the Future dominated the way I thought about our civilization for the past 10 years.

I do not think it’s hyperbolic to say that 2020 changed everything. I cannot think of a year in my life that was more transformational for not only myself in both my personal and professional lives, but also for our entire civilization, than 2020. It was so transformational that Peter Thiel called it the "first year of the 21st century" and Tyler Cowen asked “Is the Great Stagnation over?”

I wrote in the Purpose of Wealth, that in spite of the death and suffering experienced by millions, 2020 was a year of miracles in a nation of miracles. I now believe that the Great Stagnation, which has lasted for 50 years, is giving way to an Age of Miracles. 

Personally, Remote Work has been the most transformational technological and cultural development of my life. I grew up in a small town, and I’ve never been especially fond of big cities, but I’ve always lived in them as an adult because it was where the universities and the jobs were. I had to live in Seattle to get my economics degree from the University of Washington and ride the Amazon wave in my early career. Now, it is possible to enjoy most of the benefits of the city without having to live in one. The Internet is now my university, my employer, and my city. It’s hard to justify living in a big city when I can earn the same income anywhere I live, but enjoy a cost of living that is 50% or less in a small town. I do not think I will remain in the big city much longer, and I believe tens of millions of Americans will make the same decision over the next few years. 

Remote Work is a miracle so revolutionary that it could probably power the Deflationary Boom by itself. And yet, we’re being blessed with many more miracles in the form of powerful new technologies! Finance and Energy, two sectors untouched by innovation in decades, are now being completely reinvented, with Bitcoin and Tesla as the emblematic examples of the new paradigm being created. ₿EST is the new FANG.

I have never been more optimistic and excited about the future of technology and civilization than I am right now. I am so excited that I am no longer content to invest from the sidelines and watch others create new technological miracles. It’s time to build. I am leaving my job at PrecisionLender to be a part of building the future of finance in the Cryptoasset ecosystem. 

Stay tuned for a big announcement in the coming weeks!